Date of Graduation

8-2014

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy in Public Policy (PhD)

Degree Level

Graduate

Department

Political Science

Advisor/Mentor

Eric Wailes

Committee Member

Ka Zeng

Second Committee Member

Daniel Rainey

Keywords

Grain Reserves, Price Volatility

Abstract

Rice is a staple food in Asia and its prices at national and international levels are largely influenced by different policy actions of trading countries. The consequence of the 2008 food crisis was food riots and rationing of rice in many nations. The ASEAN Plus Three (APT) countries have adopted an institutional framework called ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserves (APTERR) to address food security concerns of ASEAN countries that may arise due to climate change, supply chain disruptions or price speculation in the regional rice market. The RICEFLOW model is used to study the effectiveness of the strategic grain reserves to mitigate rising rice prices in case of weather related calamities. The objective of the study is to address price volatility in the Philippines and other ASEAN countries due to production shortfalls. The simulated results from the RICEFLOW model show that the APTERR stocks are ideal to address short term emergency situations like disaster relief during floods and typhoons but are not sufficient under current design to address extreme price volatility. With increased commitment by member nations to the size of the APTERR grain reserves can offer a policy leverage to reduce extreme price volatility if there is a production shortfall due to natural calamities or speculation in international rice market.

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