Date of Graduation

8-2024

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Biology (MS)

Degree Level

Graduate

Department

Biological Sciences

Advisor/Mentor

Naithani, Kusum

Committee Member

Roberts, Caleb

Second Committee Member

Cothren, Jackson

Keywords

GIS; Land change; Land cover; Landscape ecology; Monarch butterfly; Random forest

Abstract

The decline of monarch butterfly populations (Danaus plexippus L.) over the past four decades, particularly in their overwintering habitats, has raised concerns about the species' conservation. Habitat loss and modification, particularly within the contiguous United States, are attributed as one of the key drivers of this decline. However, the specific impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on monarch distributions remains inadequately documented. This study integrates monarch observations from multiple sources spanning 2008 to 2019 with LULC data to analyze the relationship between habitat configuration and monarch presence. Using a randomized grid sampling approach, habitat configuration metrics were calculated for extraction cells, and a Random Forest model was used to identify predictors of monarch presence. The results highlight the significance of factors such as milkweed presence, year, major land cover types, precipitation patterns, and temperature seasonality in predicting monarch presence. While previous research has emphasized land cover as a probable driver of monarch distributions, our findings suggest that other landscape and habitat characteristics may play equally important roles. Monarchs pose specific challenges for species distribution modeling due to their widespread distribution, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of habitat characteristics across their range.

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