Document Type

Report

Publication Date

5-2025

Keywords

Arkansas Global Rice Model; Consumption; Trade; Yields; Production; Asia

Abstract

• Global rice consumption is projected to exceed global rice production for most of the coming decade, with stocks playing a crucial role in balancing the global market over the projected period.

• The projected growth in production is almost exclusively due to productivity gains.

• The projected global rice consumption is growing, driven mainly by population growth. However, the average global per capita rice consumption is estimated to increase slowly in the coming decade due to a regain in per capita consumption in Asia, the largest rice-consuming region worldwide.

• The international prices of long-grain and medium-grain rice are projected to increase in nominal terms but decrease in real terms in the next decade due to ample rice supplies.

• Rice demand in Africa will continue to grow at a high pace, thus supporting a fast growth in regional production and imports.

• Global rice trade is projected to increase in nominal and relative (to supply) terms, with Africa being the main driver of the expansion.

• Rice exports will remain concentrated between India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Cambodia in the projected decade. India will remain the largest exporter of rice, followed by Thailand and Vietnam, respectively, in the coming decade.

• On the rice import side, we project that China, Indonesia, and the EU will lose market share, while Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire will grow their market shares, by 2032–2034 relative to the situation in 2021–2023, and the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and Iran shares will remain steady.

Series Number

1016

Download

Share

COinS