Date of Graduation

5-2025

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Data Science

Degree Level

Undergraduate

Department

Data Science

Advisor/Mentor

Davis, EmmaLe

Committee Member

Schubert, Karl

Second Committee Member

Hertzog, Jake

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic was one of the most catalyzing events of the 21st century, leading to supply chain disruptions, lifestyle changes, and a massive shift towards digital technologies. During the COVID-19 lockdown, many people had more free time, and over 16 million individuals learned to play guitar in the first 2 years of the pandemic. According to a study by Fender, 62% of these new guitar learners cited the pandemic as their primary reason for learning the instrument. However, pandemic policies and supply chain disruptions meant that many guitar retailers were unable to satisfy demand, and backorders accumulated. After the pandemic, this demand dramatically shifted, leaving many companies with too much inventory. This student-led research project seeks to compare the guitar retail market to a similar retail market before and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2019-2023), discover guitar market category trends, and predict future guitar market growth to better inform manufacturers, retailers, and consumers. The study includes a literature review, hypothesis testing, a preliminary study of the datasets through summary statistics and basic visualizations (using Python), and several iterations of predictive/forecasting models (SARIMA, LSTM, etc.). The modeling results were subsequently compared with interviews with industry experts from the Northwest Arkansas region and the NAMM (National Association of Music Merchants) show in California, and an appropriate final model was selected to predict the guitar retail market’s growth in the next five years.

Keywords

Music, Supply chain, pandemic, instruments, forecasting

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