Date of Graduation

5-2025

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Environmental Dynamics (MS)

Degree Level

Graduate

Department

Environmental Dynamics

Advisor/Mentor

Guccione, Margaret J.

Committee Member

Aly, Mohamed H.

Second Committee Member

Feng, Song

Keywords

Climate Change; ENSO; Guarare River; Panama; Precipitation

Abstract

The Guarare River watershed on the Azuero Peninsula of Panama, part of the Panamanian Dry Arc, experiences significant hydrological variability driven by seasonal changes, elevation, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study investigates precipitation and river discharge patterns over 40 years (1981 – 2020), showing that elevation influences rainfall distribution, with higher-altitude areas receiving more precipitation during the Neutral and El Niño phases. In contrast, La Niña phases bring increased rainfall to lower-elevation areas, such as Pocrí. Seasonal ENSO effects reveal that El Niño phases reduce dry-season precipitation, lowering river discharge. La Niña events sustain high wet-season rainfall, peaking river discharge at 60 m3/s. Strong correlations during the La Niña and Neutral phases highlight the direct influence of precipitation on river flow. In contrast, El Niño phases suggest a reliance on groundwater for maintaining discharge. These findings demonstrate that the variable impact of ENSO phases, along with elevation and seasons, causes both drought and flood risks in the Guarare River watershed. The analysis underscores the need for adaptive water management strategies that account for ENSO-driven shifts, emphasizing groundwater as a critical factor in maintaining discharge during El Nino-related droughts and identifying specific areas vulnerable to flooding during intensified La Nina events.

Download

Share

COinS