Date of Graduation

5-2025

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Geography (MS)

Degree Level

Graduate

Department

Geosciences

Advisor/Mentor

Peter, Brad G.

Committee Member

Tullis, Jason A.

Second Committee Member

He, Yaqian

Keywords

Food Security; Indonesia; Land Change; Land Cover; LULCC

Abstract

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) significantly impacts Earth’s environmental, climatic, and human systems, especially in tropical regions rich in natural resources and undergoing rapid development. This study examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of LULCC in Indonesia between 2003 and 2023 using remote sensing and geographic information systems/science (GISci) and explored knowledge gaps in agricultural land conversions and the impact of food security programs such as the Food Estate Program. This study employed the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD12Q1 land cover data available through Google Earth Engine, and classified land cover changes into four dominant categories: forest land, mixed vegetation, agricultural land, and urban land. Utilizing transition matrix analysis and cartographic visualization, this study identified LULCC trends in forest, urban, and agriculture land conversions across Indonesia. It was estimated that Indonesia’s urban land increased by nearly 1,500 km² over the study period, primarily in the form of agricultural land conversions, particularly on Java Island. Although agricultural land experienced a net loss of around 10,000 km², significant expansions were observed in regions outside Java, particularly in Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Food Estate Program locations. Forest land declined by more than 61,000 km², with more than 99% of the forest land converting mainly into mixed vegetation, indicating potential large-scale deforestation. However, nearly 88,000 km² of mixed vegetation reverted to forest land, suggesting potential reforestation or regrowth in specific regions. Considering these transitions, this study also addresses challenges associated with land use classifications and the likelihood of errors of omission and errors of commission occurring on an interannual basis. Furthermore, the study further discussed key environmental concerns linked to land use policy, including the Food Estate Program, large-scale coal mining, and extensive oil palm plantations, which have contributed to deforestation, land degradation, potential food security issues, and other challenges. Ultimately, this study provides insights into comprehensive long-term and large-scale LULCC dynamics, which if understood are a key to more effective land management policy and sustainable land use planning and conservation efforts in Indonesia.

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