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Date of Graduation

5-2025

Description

The COVID-19 pandemic posed significant challenges to the U.S. K-12 education system, disrupting traditional public school enrollment while fueling growth in private schooling and homeschooling. Some research has analyzed these decisions at the state level or with administrative data, but little is known about the associated characteristics of these decisions nationally. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of public, private, and homeschooling enrollment patterns during the pandemic, focusing on the transitions families made between these schooling types and identifying key characteristics associated with switching in and out of public schools. Using a discrete choice duration model and random forest algorithms on data from the Understanding America Study conducted by the University of Southern California, we find that factors such as parental education, household income, and trust in Fox News were significant predictors of school switching behavior. Notably, homeschoolers and private school enrollees exhibited contrasting associations with variables like income, urbanicity, and family size. We also attempt to capture the changes in the importance of these factors through these analyses. Perceived risk of COVID-19 and the availability of remote learning options were found to be relevant variables at the beginning of the pandemic. Understanding the characteristics of families exiting and reentering public schools can help districts design responsive policies and address socioeconomic sorting that may exacerbate segregation. Moreover, the persistent gap in public school enrollment seen in administrative data—potentially explained by truancy, unregistered homeschooling, or kindergarten non-enrollment (Dee, 2023)—highlights the need for improved data tracking and points to educational setbacks. Finally, the school choice movement in the United States has strengthened in recent years, with many states passing legislation supporting the marketization of schools (Abdulkadiroglu & Andersson, 2022). Learning about parental educational decisions, especially at a time of crisis like a pandemic, and the stickiness of these choices can shed light on potential risks when implementing various education policies.

Publication Date

2025

Document Type

Book

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts in Economics

Degree Level

Undergraduate

Department

Economics

Advisor/Mentor

Zamarro, Gema

Disciplines

Social and Behavioral Sciences

Keywords

Social Science

The Switch: Determinants of family school modality choices during the COVID-19 pandemic

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