Date of Graduation

5-2025

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts in Political Science

Degree Level

Undergraduate

Department

Political Science

Advisor/Mentor

Ryan, Jeffrey

Committee Member

Lueke, Sarah

Second Committee Member

Campos, Alejandra

Third Committee Member

Gruenewald, Jeff

Abstract

The erosion of democratic governance in Latin America has emerged as a critical area of concern for political scientists, policymakers, and international organizations. Historically, the region has experienced fluctuating political landscapes marked by periods of democratic consolidation followed by authoritarian regression. Throughout the 20th century, countries such as Chile, Argentina, and Brazil witnessed military dictatorships resulting from socio-economic crises and political instability. Despite widespread democratic transitions throughout the 1980s and 1990s, contemporary Latin America faces new challenges that threaten its democratic integrity. The resurgence of authoritarian tendencies within the region coincides with escalating homicide and assault rates in many countries, while the lingering impact of the pandemic has led to higher inflation and often-weak economic growth. In some places, notably Venezuela and Nicaragua, we’ve seen a simultaneous collapse of the economic, security, and democratic structures so severe that some observers have classified the two countries as ‘failed states’ (De la Cruz 2023; Hatab, 2023). While each nation’s decline follows a unique trajectory, common underlying factors raise pressing questions about the durability of democracy in Latin America as a whole. Economic instability is a particularly relevant dimension of this analysis, given the region's recurring struggles with hyperinflation, recession, and financial mismanagement (Claassen, 2022). For example, Venezuela’s rapid descent into authoritarianism was closely tied to its economic collapse, driven by declining oil revenues, widespread corruption, and disastrous policy decisions that eroded public trust in democratic governance (Cyr, 2014). Similarly, countries like Argentina and Brazil have faced economic crises that have undermined political stability and contributed to the erosion of institutional legitimacy (Can, 2021). Latin America's economic volatility often intersects with political corruption and crime, creating a vicious cycle that further degrades democratic institutions. When governments fail to address fundamental economic issues such as inflation, unemployment, and inequality, public frustration grows, paving the way for populist leaders to exploit economic grievances for political gain. These leaders often promise swift solutions to economic woes, sometimes at the expense of democratic norms and institutional checks. The central issue of this study concerns the extent to which public perceptions of insecurity—particularly in relation to rising physical and economic insecurity—contribute to weakening democratic norms and institutions. Security concerns have historically been instrumentalized by leaders to justify authoritarian measures, often with popular support. However, economic distress can be just as influential in shaping public perceptions of governance efficacy. The combination of economic instability, crime, and corruption creates a fertile ground for citizens to grow disillusioned with democracy and increasingly consider authoritarian governance as a viable alternative. As Latin America continues to grapple with entrenched organized crime, rampant homicide rates, ineffective governance, and economic decline, the relationship between these factors and democratic resilience requires deeper investigation. Understanding whether public fears surrounding crime and economic insecurity are driving citizens to support authoritarian governance models is essential for assessing the region’s political future. The purpose of this research is to determine whether deteriorating security conditions and economic instability are contributing to democratic backsliding within the region. By examining crime trends, public perception of insecurity, economic performance indicators, and support for democracy, this study aims to identify patterns that may indicate a broader shift towards authoritarianism. Utilizing data from sources such as the regional polling corporation Latinobarómetro, the World Bank, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and elsewhere, this study will assess whether public fears surrounding crime and economic distress are driving citizens to support authoritarian governance models as a perceived remedy to ineffective democratic institutions. This thesis seeks to contribute to the growing body of literature on democratic erosion by specifically focusing on the interconnectedness of security, economic stability, and democratic governance within Latin America. Understanding the factors that influence democratic stability is essential for developing effective policy responses aimed at safeguarding democracy in the region.

Keywords

Latin America; Democracy; Authoritarian; Economy; Security

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