Document Type


Publication Date



Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, resulting in climate impacts, are raising concerns over the hydrologic cycle and its effects upon agricultural productivity. If rainfall patterns change, meeting an increased demand for fruits and vegetables will pose a challenge for domestic production regions in the United States (U.S.). Information on potential water supply scarcity in the current production regions provides decision makers with critical information for risk mitigation for future production. We used a hydrologic balance-based model of historic and future water availability to evaluate risk of available irrigation water to support major fruit and vegetable production the US. The purpose of this work was to develop and demonstrate a method for assessing the risk of irrigation water availability to climate change.