An intervention analysis of fatal far-right extremist violence within a vector-autoregressive framework

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This research examines the efficacy of 15 policy interventions and high-profile events on fatal violence committed by far-right extremists in the United States through the theoretical frameworks of deterrence, situational crime prevention, backlash, and political encouragement. We use a multivariate structural vector autoregressive process to analyse monthly time-series data to investigate the impact of these interventions on fatal far-right violence over a 25-year period. Controlling for variation in the national homicide rate, there was a decrease in far-right ideologically motivated homicide events after 9/11 and the passing of the Patriot Act. We also found an increase in non-ideological homicides after 9/11 and the Patriot Act, and a decrease after the Hate Crimes Act, Fort Hood Shooting and the Boston Bombing. Overall, it appears that most federal legislation, civil lawsuits, and changes to federal investigative guidelines, have no significant impact on far-right ideological violence and a limited impact on non-ideological violence.