Linear regression analysis of total gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) fur harvests from 1954-1983 in Arkansas showed a high correlation with mean pelt values (r = 0.956). Single variable models using linear regression analyses of current season's pelt values (CSPV) and previous season's pelt values (PSPV) were designed to predict fur harvests. These models demonstrated high correlations for predicting harvests (r = 0.933 and r = 0.893 respectively). Regional analyses revealed a high correlation between mean pelt values and harvest for the Ozark Mountain region (r = 0.923), Ouachita Mountain region (r = 0.971 ), and Gulf Coastal Plain (r = 0.975). The Mississippi Delta region correlation of r = 0.756 suggested the interaction of other unidentified variables. It appears that in Arkansas, gray fox fur harvests can be reasonably predicted by using either the CSPV or PSPV models. These models indicate that declines in the total harvest of gray fox in Arkansas since 1980 are probably due to price declines.
Peck, James H. and Heidt, Gary A.
"Model to Predict Arkansas Gray Fox Fur Harvests,"
Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science: Vol. 39
, Article 23.
Available at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/jaas/vol39/iss1/23