Is technological progress a random walk? Examining data from space travel

Authors

Michael Howell, University of Arkansas at Little RockFollow
Daniel Berleant, University of Arkansas at Little RockFollow
Hyacinthe Aboudja, Oklahoma City UniversityFollow
Richard Segall, Arkansas State UniversityFollow
Peng-Hung Tsai, University of Arkansas at Little RockFollow

Keywords

Space Travel, Random walk, Forecasting

Abstract

Improvement in a variety of technologies can often be successful modeled using a general version of Moore’s law (i.e. exponential improvements over time). Another successful approach is Wright’s law, which models increases in technological capability as a function of an effort variable such as production. While these methods are useful, they do not provide prediction distributions, which would enable a better understanding of forecast quality

Farmer and Lafond (2016) developed a forecasting method which produces forecast distributions and is applicable to many kinds of technology. A fundamental assumption of their method is that technological progress can be modeled as a random walk with drift.

We demonstrate a class of technology, space exploration, in which random walk with drift does not occur. This shows the need for alternative approaches suitable in such technological domains.

Recommended Citation

Howell, Michael; Berleant, Daniel; Aboudja, Hyacinthe; Segall, Richard; and Tsai, Peng-Hung (2021) "Is technological progress a random walk? Examining data from space travel," Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science: Vol. 75, Article 14.
https://doi.org/10.54119/jaas.2021.7501
Available at: https://scholarworks.uark.edu/jaas/vol75/iss1/14