Date of Graduation

5-2017

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Agricultural Economics (MS)

Degree Level

Graduate

Department

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness

Advisor

Eric J. Wailes

Committee Member

Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon

Second Committee Member

Alvaro Durand-Morat

Abstract

In the wake of the 2008 food crisis, net food importing countries questioned the reliance on the volatile world market to meet their food demand. Consequently, the necessity to be selfsufficient returned to the forefront of national priorities. In Africa, the Coalition for African Rice Development (CARD) initiative was initiated and aimed to double rice production in the continent by 2018, with the eventual goal of achieving self-sufficiency in rice production. To attain this goal, each of the 23 CARD member countries drafted a comprehensive value chain upgrading strategy called the National Rice Development Strategy (NRDS). This study intends to evaluate through simulations the feasibility of the NRDS goals for four southern African countries, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia by looking at past trends and projecting future rice supply and use within each country. The Arkansas Global Rice Model, a non-spatial, partial equilibrium and multi-country econometric framework, is used to estimate baseline projections and simulate self-sufficiency scenarios. The business as usual baseline results indicate that none of the four countries will be able to attain self-sufficiency by 2018. Thus, alternative scenarios estimating the production level requirement for self-sufficiency were simulated — relative to area harvested, yield increase— and compared to the NRDS goals. Additionally, a qualitative analysis of the feasibility of achieving self-sufficiency for each country is provided considering the current national policy framework.

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