Date of Graduation

5-2017

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Arts in Political Science (MA)

Degree Level

Graduate

Department

Political Science

Advisor

Andrew J. Dowdle

Committee Member

Pearl K. Dowe

Second Committee Member

Joshua Mitchell

Keywords

Social sciences; Communication and the arts; Broadcast media; Preprimary; Presidential nominations

Abstract

This study attempts to discover if broadcast media released during the preprimary period has an effect on the Presidential nomination process, and if so in what way? Several OLS regression models, based on Randall Adkins and Andrew Dowdle’s Presidential nomination forecasting models, were created as an attempt to not only find a statistically significant effect between broadcast media and aggregate vote percentage, but also in an effort to create more effective forecasts. I have drawn my sample from every open nomination race dating back to 1980, and used both cable and network broadcasting sources. I have covered not only the effects of broadcast media on forecasting, but its effects on the preprimary and primary process as a whole.

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