Rice, Arkansas, conronavirus pandemic impact, global production
The war in Ukraine and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are pushing input costs to record levels. Although rice prices have increased some in the last several months, production costs have increased more than proportionally, undermining rice profitability.
We project global rice production will surpass global rice consumption for most of the coming decade, with a small deficit developing by the end of the projected period.
The projected growth in production is almost exclusively due to productivity gains since the global rice area is projected to increase only marginally by 2029–2031.
The projected growth in global rice consumption is exclusively based on population growth, as the average global per-capita consumption of rice is estimated to decrease in the coming decade.
The international price of long-grain and medium-grain rice is projected to increase in nominal terms but decrease in real terms in the next decade due to ample rice supplies.
We project that rice demand in Africa will continue to grow at a high pace, thus supporting a fast growth in regional production and imports.
Global rice trade is projected to increase in nominal and relative (to supply) terms, with Africa being the main driver of the expansion.
Rice exports will remain highly concentrated among the top-5 exporters. India will remain the largest exporter of rice, while Thailand will consolidate as the second largest exporter in the coming decade. Myanmar and Cambodia are expected to grow their export market share, while Vietnam, Pakistan, and the U.S. are expected to lose market share in the coming decade.
On the rice import side, we project that China, the Philippines, the EU, and Saudi Arabia will lose market share, while Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, and Iran will grow their market shares by 2029–2031 relative to the situation in 2018–2020.
Durand-Morat, A., & Bairagi, S. (2022). International Rice Outlook: International Rice Baseline Projections 2021–2031. Research Reports and Research Bulletins. Retrieved from https://scholarworks.uark.edu/aaesrb/53