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Technical Report

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Climate, Planning, Dendrochronology, Stochastic hydrology, Paleohydrology, Time series analysis, Rainfall-runoff processes, Rivers, Drought, White River, Arkansas, Missouri


A 281-year reconstruction of White River annual runoff at Clarendon, Arkansas, was developed from a regional average of nine Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas tree-ring chronologies (six post oak, Quercus stellata, and three baldcypress, Taxodium distichum). Inhomogeneity of the gaged series was detected with both double mass analysis (using state average total annual Arkansas precipitation) and regression (using the regional tree-ring average). Simple regression calibrated the homogeneous runoff data with the average ring width data from 1930 to 1980. Comparing the reconstruction with independent data verified the regression model. Variance of the reconstruction increases significantly during the 20th century, a change that may be caused by climatic shifts or by anthropogenic disturbances in the watershed. Years of surplus and deficit runoff are non-randomly distributed in both gaged and reconstructed series. This non-randomness appears to be caused by a significant tendency for inter-annual persistence of runoff extremes, which may provide a basis for improvement of probabilistic forecasts of White River runoff.

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