Date of Graduation


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science in Industrial Engineering (MSIE)

Degree Level



Industrial Engineering


Gregory S. Parnell

Committee Member

Edward A. Pohl

Second Committee Member

Eric Specking

Third Committee Member

Simon Goerger


Conceptual Design, Early Life Cycle Reliability, Integrated Models, Model-Based Engineering, Reliability Prediction, Trade-off Analysis


Research presented in this paper focuses on developing models to estimate the systemreliability of Unmanned Ground Vehicles using knowledge and data from similar systems. Traditional reliability approaches often require detailed knowledge of a system and are used in later design stages as well as development, operational test and evaluation, and operations. The critical role of reliability and its impact on acquisition program performance, cost, and schedule motivate the need for improved system reliability models in the early design stages. Reliability is often a stand-alone requirement and not fully included in performance and life cycle cost models. This research seeks to integrate reliability, performance, and cost models in a trade -off analysis framework in the early acquisition stages. This research uses functional analysis methods to estimate reliability Pre-Milestone A and assess the impact of reliability on performance and cost models of early system concepts. This research uses technology readiness level (TRL), which is indexed, to select different levels of reliability for design. An integrated cost and performance model will inform decision-makers on the impact of reliability before choosing a system concept for further development.