Date of Graduation


Document Type


Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Business Administration

Degree Level





Rennie, Craig

Committee Member/Reader

Santamaria, Sergio


The purpose of the study is to investigate whether a portfolio manager could enhance his/her portfolio optimization strategy by periodically adjusting the equity sector weights to a diversified stock portfolio. The business cycle approach focuses on providing a framework for adjusting sector weightings to take advantage of recurring trends in economic growth that signal a phase transition soon. Once a shift in stages is detected, investors are advised to adjust their portfolio to overweight a specific sector that is projected to outperform in the next phase of the cycle and to offset exposure in sectors that tend to underperform during the same period. To optimize portfolio returns with minimal risk, the business cycle approach must align with macro-fundamental analysis metrics to identify unique variables in each sector that can significantly impact its performance. This study proposes using the Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator Index (LEI) to reformat the initial business cycle framework created by Burns and Mitchell (1946) and evaluate the performance of S&P 500 sector indices since 1993.


Portfolio optimization, Diversified Stock Portfolio, Business Cycle Approach, Macro-fundamental Analysis, Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator Index (LEI), service learning

Available for download on Monday, May 05, 2025