Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2-2025

Keywords

North Dakota, school choice, k12 students, conservative assumptions, forecasting

Abstract

School choice is making waves across the country. As of early 2024, 68 programs were running in 33 states, plus the District of Columbia (DC) and Puerto Rico, collectively serving over I million K-12 students.[i] Additionally, public charter schools are authorized in 46 states and DC, offering another form of educational choice. North Dakota stands as the only U.S. state without either form—no school choice programs or public charter schools. That is likely to change soon.[ii] What could this shift mean for the Peace Garden State? In this white paper, I forecast the likely benefits to North Dakota from enacting a universal school choice program with a three-year phase-in period. Similar programs have launched over the past three years in Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, New Hampshire, Utah, and West Virginia. I draw from the wealth of research evaluating existing school choice programs in the U.S. to predict how many students will participate in such a program in North Dakota and what changes school choice will bring to the test scores and educational attainment of those participants, the test scores of students who remain in district-run public schools, and the fiscal health of the state. I use common forecasting techniques and conservative assumptions to develop these predictions. Because the forecasts are based on a hypothetical, but common, program design as well as past experiences in other states, they are merely estimates. The actual effects of the school choice program eventually adopted in North Dakota could and likely will vary somewhat from those forecasts. As investment advisors like to say, "Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes."

Comments

Sheila and Robert Challey Institute for Global Innovations and Growth

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