Date of Graduation

7-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Agricultural Economics (MS)

Degree Level

Graduate

Department

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness

Advisor/Mentor

Thompson, Jada

Committee Member

Durand-Morat, Alvaro

Second Committee Member

Buysse, Jeroen

Keywords

Ukraine, War, Grain Trade, Europe, EU agricultural trade network

Abstract

This thesis investigates the heterogeneous structural disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine on the European Union’s agricultural trade architecture, focusing on three critical commodities: wheat, maize, and sunflower seeds. Employing a structural gravity model framework across all 27 EU Member States, the study evaluates two conflict episodes, the 2014 Crimea annexation and the 2022 full-scale invasion, to identify the net beneficiaries and heavily impacted nations within the EU agricultural trade network. The empirical strategy utilizes a dual-test design to capture the full scope of the disruption. Test A (Ukraine towards the EU trade) reveals a distinct geographic logic in direct import reallocations. Driven by emergency trade liberalization and overland solidarity lanes following maritime blockades, the five frontline member states bordering Ukraine absorbed the largest shocks. Conversely, maritime-dependent peripheral states like Ireland suffered sharp import contractions, whereas historical partnerships in Spain flourished. Moving deeper, Test B (intra-EU trade) isolates the secondary domestic market distortions, demonstrating that Poland emerged as the central redistribution node of the restructured grain supply chain, expanding its own intra-EU exports before coordinated regional import bans redirected intense logistical pressure toward Romania. The combined empirical results contextualize the 2023 regional farmer protests by confirming that national-level transit gains coexisted with severe localized price suppression and displaced domestic export capacities. Ultimately, this thesis demonstrates that geopolitical shocks produce highly asymmetric distributional consequences within the EU Single Market, offering critical insights for future agricultural trade policies and targeted solidarity measures for affected farming communities.

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