Document Type
Article
Publication Date
10-15-2024
Keywords
political forecasting, presidential election, Republican, Donald Trump
Abstract
Abstract
Donald Trump’s bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is unique in that no former president since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 has sought the nomination of their political party, nor has a candidate sought the nomination while facing multiple criminal indictments. With data from previous nomination cycles, we use presidential nominations from 1980 to 2020 to create a forecast for the 2024 Republican primaries. The variables in the equations consist of data from the pre-primary period (e.g., money raised, cash reserves, elite endorsements, and polling results) and a second model with results of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary to forecast the remaining primary vote. The models accurately predict Trump’s victory despite the unique nature of his candidacy.
Citation
Dowdle AJ, Adkins RE, Sebold K, Steger WP. Forecasting the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Can the Former Heavyweight Champ Win Another Title Shot? PS: Political Science & Politics. 2025;58(2):192-197. doi:10.1017/S1049096524000787
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
