Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2-2025

Keywords

resilience, all-hazard risk analysis, engineering economic analysis, climate change, return on investment

Abstract

The paper describes our project to develop, verify, and deploy an All-Hazards Return of Investment (ROI) model for the U. S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) to provide army installations with a decision support tool for evaluating strategies to make existing installation facilities more resilient. The need for increased resilience to extreme weather caused by climate change was required by U.S. code and DoD guidance, as well as an army strategic plan that stipulated an ROI model to evaluate relevant resilient strategies. During the project, the ERDC integrated the University of Arkansas designed model into a new army installation planning tool and expanded the scope to evaluate resilient options from climate to all hazards. Our methodology included research on policy, data sources, resilient options, and analytical techniques, along with stakeholder interviews and weekly meetings with installation planning tool developers. The ROI model uses standard risk analysis and engineering economics terms and analyzes potential installation hazards and resilient strategies using data in the installation planning tool. The ROI model calculates the expected net present cost without the resilient strategy, the expected net present cost with the resilient strategy, and ROI for each resilient strategy. The minimum viable product ROI model was formulated mathematically, coded in Python, verified using hazard scenarios, and provided to the ERDC for implementation.

Comments

Web of Science

MDPI

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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