Document Type

Report

Publication Date

4-2026

Keywords

Global Rice Consumption, Global Rice Production, Global Rice Market, Arkansas Global Rice Model

Abstract

• Over the next ten years, global rice consumption is projected to exceed global rice production, making existing stocks crucial for meeting the global rice market demand. • Global production is projected to grow mostly due to productivity gains and some area expansion, with India’s production performance becoming more relevant. • The global rice consumption is projected to climb, driven mainly by population growth. The average global per capita rice consumption is expected to drop slightly over the next decade, primarily due to slower per capita consumption growth in Asia and Africa. • The international prices of long-grain and medium-grain rice are projected to rise in nominal terms but drop in real terms in the next decade due to ample rice supplies. • In Africa, rice demand will continue to grow at a high pace, driving a surge in regional production and imports. • Global rice trade is projected to increase in nominal and relative terms, with Africa being the catalyst of the trade expansion. • Rice exports will remain highly concentrated among the top five exporters: India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Cambodia. India will remain the largest exporter of rice, followed by Thailand and Vietnam, respectively, in the coming decade. • On the rice import side, Indonesia and the EU will lose market share, while China, Iran, and Cote d’Ivoire will expand their market shares. The import shares of the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and Nigeria will remain steady.

Series Number

1019

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