Date of Graduation
12-2020
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science in Biological Engineering (MSBE)
Degree Level
Graduate
Department
Biological and Agricultural Engineering
Advisor/Mentor
Matlock, Marty D.
Committee Member
Thoma, Gregory J.
Second Committee Member
Runkle, Benjamin R.
Third Committee Member
Le, Kieu
Keywords
Risk assessment; Climate change; Water management; Ecosystem preservation; Precipitation patterns; Surface water availability; Prediction; Ecohydrological model; Modeling methodology
Abstract
Climate change affects water resources differently across geospatial regions in the United States (U.S). There is a concern of how water availability will be affected by changes in long-term temperature and precipitation patterns, specifically in major production regions for eight fruit and vegetable crops. The effects on surface water available for irrigation use and supply stress in five regions containing 31 Agricultural Statistics Districts (ASDs) were assessed. The Water Supply Stress Index Model was used and modified to project water available for irrigation use across nine climate scenarios driven by historical data, five General Circulation Models, two population scenarios, and two Representative Concentration Pathways. Through the incorporation of Hydrologic Unit Code 8 subbasin boundaries (HUC8), and ASDs, a new border was defined from the HUC8 borders which allowed water availability in the ASDs and regions to be quantified through hydrologic boundaries and flow characteristics between HUC8s. Projected surface water available for irrigation use increased at the annual time step from 2040-2070 across ASDs in the Pacific West for two moderate warming scenarios. Two high warming scenarios projected decreased water availability in the Pacific West. The results all showed decreased projected surface water available for irrigation use in the Midwest and Southeast. Across all climate scenarios in the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast, average watershed surface water supply stress induced by irrigation is projected to increase. The Plains and Pacific West showed decreased supply stress in certain scenarios, but this does not tell us how the watersheds will be affected during growing seasons. Past research shows that in areas of the Western U.S., precipitation will increase annually due to climate change. Overall, the results showed that water availability would decrease in the selected regions across climate change scenarios, but more work is needed to understand how the specific fruit and vegetable crops will be affected.
Citation
Shaw, A. (2020). Projecting Water Available for Irrigation Use and Identifying Water Supply Stress Under Climate Change Scenarios in Selected U.S. Fruit and Vegetable Production Regions. Graduate Theses and Dissertations Retrieved from https://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/3930
Included in
Biological Engineering Commons, Climate Commons, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons, Environmental Monitoring Commons, Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, Sustainability Commons, Systems and Integrative Engineering Commons, Water Resource Management Commons