Date of Graduation
12-2023
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science in Geography (MS)
Degree Level
Graduate
Department
Geosciences
Advisor/Mentor
Mohamed H. Aly
Committee Member
Lamb, Andrew Patrick
Second Committee Member
Boss, Stephen K.
Keywords
seismic event assessment, seismological loss computation, earthquake loss estimation, seismic hazard assessment, Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE)
Abstract
The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is one of the active tectonic zones capable of producing big earthquakes in the southcentral USA. The objective of this study was to assess the economic losses and casualties that might be caused by various magnitudes of seismic events in the NMSZ. The manifestation is the estimation for each magnitude which is using the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) that might occur during an earthquake. It is calculated using an attenuation function that correlates the intensity of local ground movement, the earthquake magnitude, and the distance from its epicenter. The assessment of casualties was conducted at three different times, including daytime (2 pm), nighttime (2 am), and commute time (5 pm), as these are considered the most vulnerable times during a seismic event. Statewide baseline inventories for buildings, essential facilities, and infrastructure, as well as liquefaction data, were obtained from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and FEMA’s HAZUS-MH 5.1 software was utilized to accomplish this major part of my research. The primary methodology steps included aggregating the study area, creating probabilistic scenarios to run the analysis for PGA, and generating damage reports using existing attenuation functions to show the decay with distances. The distance used in this study is determined by the attenuation functions used during the modeling. This study encompassed the NMSZ surrounding states, including Tennessee, Mississippi, Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Alabama. Study outcomes are anticipated to help with earthquake preparedness and economic loss mitigation in the aforementioned states.
Citation
Afroz, M. (2023). Modeling the Peak Ground Acceleration and Assessing the Economic Loss and Casualty Due to Potential Earthquakes of Various Magnitudes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Graduate Theses and Dissertations Retrieved from https://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/5129
Included in
Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons, Geology Commons, Geomorphology Commons, Geophysics and Seismology Commons, Nature and Society Relations Commons, Spatial Science Commons