Date of Graduation

5-2024

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Geography (MS)

Degree Level

Graduate

Department

Geosciences

Advisor/Mentor

Kátia Fernandes

Committee Member

Brad G. Peter

Second Committee Member

David W. Stahle

Keywords

Keetch-Byram Drought Index; Vegetation fires; climate-fire relationship

Abstract

Vegetation fires are a complicated phenomenon to predict both the occurrence and intensity. In the United States, fire behavior has been widely studied in high-risk regions such as in the American West, but fires also occur regularly in states that receive greater levels of precipitation, such as Arkansas. Fires are an expensive and dangerous environmental problem. As climate trends caused by global warming continue to progress, quantifying the extent to which climate factors influence their occurrence in Arkansas would be useful for land management, public safety, public health, agriculture, urban development, and to advance the science of fire-climate dynamics in the American South. In this study, fires are evaluated using the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer (VIIRS) monthly active fires dataset, which is used to determine fire season peak. Land use/land cover (LULC) classifications in the state of Arkansas are analyzed to determine whether the climate-fire relationship varies according to predominant land covers. Finally, this study will explore the relationships between fire occurrence and climate variables using the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) that incorporates temperature and precipitation to provide an outlook of fire risk. KBDI is commonly used for fire risk assessment in the US, but it’s unclear if the index can be relied on to assess fire risk in Arkansas or whether it provides different levels of reliability according to predominant landscape. KBDI in this study was calculated using Google Earth Engine in JavaScript, which facilitates consultation of daily KBDI estimates for Arkansas to the public.

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