Date of Graduation

8-2024

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy in Economics (PhD)

Degree Level

Graduate

Department

Economics

Advisor/Mentor

Kali, Raja

Committee Member

Gu, Jingping

Second Committee Member

Civelli, Andrea

Keywords

Economic growth; Input output linkages; Semiconductor; Supply Chain

Abstract

One prominent consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic was the disruption of critical parts of the global supply chain. In the U.S., delays at ports and shortages of critical inputs such as semiconductors have negative ripple effects across the economy. This situation prompts a surge of interests from academics, business leaders, and policy makers alike. However, the evidence of the quantification of supply chain disruptions’ impact and its drivers on economic variables are still scant. In this essay, I investigate the extent of the impact of supply chain shocks on the U.S. economy and the mechanisms through which they affect economic outcomes. I exploit a buyer-supplier production networks model where industries trade intermediate inputs directly and indirectly with each other. This framework allows me to distinguish the upstream and downstream channels through supply chains can propagate. My finding suggests that that a 1% increase in the container logistics disruption induces a 20 basis point decline of the manufacturing output. I also find that a one standard deviation improvement to the productivity in the U.S. semiconductor industry would induce a 0.76% increase to U.S. GDP in ten years and a 2.1% increase to the real labor productivity the manufacturing sector. My study contributes to the understanding of the role of input output linkages in the transmission of technological change. It also provides useful insights that could help policy-makers in their effort to build a resilient supply chain and a long term economic growth.

Download

Share

COinS