Date of Graduation
7-2026
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science in Agricultural Economics (MS)
Degree Level
Graduate
Department
Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness
Advisor/Mentor
Durand-Morat, Alvaro
Committee Member
Thompson, Jada
Second Committee Member
Mottaleb, Khondoker
Keywords
Climate change; Food security; Land loss; Rice market; Spatial partial equilibrium model; Yield shocks
Abstract
Climate change threatens global rice production through declining crop yields and losses of productive rice land, yet these two pathways have rarely been analyzed simultaneously within a global trade framework. This study develops a global spatial partial equilibrium model of the rice economy that jointly incorporates climate-induced yield losses and permanent losses of rice-growing land across 76 regions and nine rice products under alternative adaptation scenarios. Simulation results indicate that low-intensity climate shocks produce only marginal changes in global markets. Under severe climate shocks, global rice production declines by up to 3.6%, export prices increase by 17%, consumer welfare falls by nearly 10%, and global welfare declines by 4.6%. Greater production flexibility, representing successful adaptation, consistently moderates production losses, price increases, and welfare losses but does not eliminate them under moderate and severe climate shocks. The decomposition outcomes indicate that yield shocks are the main driver of production and demand shifts whereas land losses concentrated in major exporting regions disproportionately affect international trade and export prices. Country-level results reveal substantial heterogeneity in climate impacts. Vietnam experiences the largest production losses because of the combined effects of yield reductions and land losses in the Mekong Delta, while India strengthens its position as a global exporter under severe climate shocks as competing exporters experience larger production declines. Among the major importing countries, Indonesia records the largest increase in rice imports owing to substantial domestic production losses, whereas China and Bangladesh exhibit relatively small changes in production and demand, reflecting greater market resilience. These findings highlight that climate impacts depend not only on the magnitude of production shocks but also on countries' roles within the global rice trading system. Overall, climate-induced yield reductions are the principal driver of global production losses, while land losses concentrated in major exporting deltas disproportionately disrupt international trade and raise export prices. Although production flexibility substantially moderates production losses, price increases, and welfare reductions, adaptation alone is insufficient to offset the effects of moderate and severe climate shocks. These findings underscore the importance of coordinated investments in climate-resilient technologies and the protection of vulnerable rice-producing deltas to strengthen global food security.
Citation
Afrina, T. (2026). Climate Induced Shocks to the Global Rice Market: Integrating Land and Yield Impact Using the Spatial Partial Equilibrium Model. Graduate Theses and Dissertations Retrieved from https://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/6427
