Date of Graduation

5-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Agricultural, Food and Life Sciences

Degree Level

Undergraduate

Department

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness

Advisor/Mentor

Jada Thompson

Committee Member

Michael Popp

Second Committee Member

James Mitchell

Abstract

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) create major challenges to poultry supply chains due to the high mortality rates in flocks, leading to disruptions in production and higher costs for producers. Using quantitative data from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, USDA, and National Agricultural Statistics Service, this research analyzes changes in egg production, retail prices, and regional variations throughout the United States for the 2022-2025 HPAI event. A time-series regression model was used to control for production costs, seasonal patterns, and regional differences. All of these measures come together to quantify the impact of HPAI outbreaks on consumer egg prices. Results showed that HPAI outbreaks are connected to approximately 4% higher egg prices in the Midwest, with the South and Northeast experiencing similar impacts, while the West was impacted on a smaller scale. The results show the significant impact that supply chain disruptions can have on consumer food prices and shows the need for increased diseases prevention measures and supply chain stability to decrease the economic impacts of any future HPAI events.

Keywords

Agriculture, HPAI, Economics

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