Date of Graduation

8-2024

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Agricultural Economics (MS)

Degree Level

Graduate

Department

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness

Advisor/Mentor

Nalley, Lawton L.

Committee Member

McFadden, Brandon R.

Second Committee Member

Durand-Morat, Alvaro

Third Committee Member

Adetoyinbo, Ayobami

Keywords

Drought; Genetically modified; Maize; South Africa; WEMA

Abstract

The Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA) partnership was launched in March 2008 to help maize producers manage drought risk by developing and deploying genetically modified (GM) maize varieties that yield 24 to 35 percent more grain under moderate drought conditions than currently available varieties across Southern Africa. Although the World Bank classifies South Africa as an upper-middle-income country, food insecurity is an ongoing concern that worsens during drought. During the drought of 2014/2015, the price of white maize more than doubled, resulting in 22% of households experiencing food insecurity. While GM maize (herbicide tolerant, Bt, and stacked) is widely adopted across South Africa, there is still consumer skepticism and pushback to GM crops, specifically maize since it’s the staple crop of South Africa. This study explores whether South African consumers are more willing to accept GM maize when it contains the WEMA traits than traditional applications of GM technology. Using a panel of 3,204 South Africans in 2022 and a Random Parameter Logit Model, this study sets out to determine if consumers view the WEMA GM trait differently than traditional GM maize under different information sets. Further, the survey explores a possible pressure release valve for food insecurity in South Africa, yellow maize, which is traditionally viewed as a source of livestock feed. Results indicate that when given information about WEMA and its potential to help stabilize maize prices during a drought, market share increases for WEMA relative to traditional white maize. Further results show that yellow maize only obtains a marginal market share, even given discounted prices via imports; this is problematic, given the limited supply of white maize on the international market, should South Africa experience another drought like 2015/2016. This study is the first of its kind in South Africa to disentangle GM traits and their impact on consumer acceptance. Results indicate that consumer acceptance of the GM WEMA trait could be significantly enhanced by informing consumers about the possible food security benefits it embodies.

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