Date of Graduation

12-2025

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Dynamics (PhD)

Degree Level

Graduate

Department

Environmental Dynamics

Advisor/Mentor

Nalley, Lawton

Committee Member

Shew, Aaron

Second Committee Member

Conner, Lawson

Third Committee Member

Owens, Philip

Keywords

Farmland Valuation; Land Economics; Soil Productivity Indicies

Abstract

This dissertation presents three empirical essays that collectively advance the understanding of farmland valuation in key U.S. agricultural regions, emphasizing the critical advantages of comprehensive, transaction-based data over traditional survey methods. Farmland represents a significant portion of agricultural wealth, and its accurate valuation is crucial for farmers, investors, and policymakers, influencing everything from credit access to investment strategies. Historically, research has often relied on subjective survey data, which can suffer from biases, inaccuracies, and insufficient granularity. This dissertation addresses these limitations by leveraging extensive datasets of arm’s-length farmland transactions, offering a more precise and market-driven perspective on land values. The first essay, "Soil-Productivity Breakpoints and Farmland Appreciation in the U.S. Corn Belt," identifies economically and statistically significant structural breaks in state-specific soil productivity indices across major Corn Belt states. Utilizing over 41,000 verified transactions, this research validates existing industry benchmarks and demonstrates that parcels above certain productivity thresholds command a premium, revealing non-linear pricing dynamics unobservable through aggregated data. The second essay, "County-Level Yields and Their Impact on Farmland Values in the U.S. Corn Belt," investigates the influence of short-run crop yield fluctuations on farmland values. Based on over 31,000 county-level transactions, the findings indicate that one-year lagged corn and soybeanyieldshavealimitedandoftenstatisticallyinsignificantdirectimpactonvalues. Instead, fundamental factors, particularly soil productivity, consistently emerge as the dominant determinant, underscoring the market’s focus on long-term productive capacity. Finally, the third essay, "The Capitalized Value of Agronomic Flexibility: A Hedonic and Real Options Analysis of U.S. Farmland Markets", augments traditional hedonic pricing by incorporating the value of managerial flexibility and crop optionality. Analyzing over 55,000 transactions across theMidwest, Mid-South, and RedRiverValley, this study finds significant regional heterogeneity. Specifically, the capacity to produce high-value"indicator crops" like cotton or sugar beets commands a premium,highlightinghowtransactiondatacanrevealnuancedmarketvaluationsofspecialized production capabilities. Collectively, this dissertation demonstrates that detailed, transaction-based data provides valuable insights into the complex determinants of farmland values, revealing factors often obscured by less granular or subjective data sources. These findings offer valuable, statistically grounded frameworks for stakeholders navigating agricultural land markets, informing investment, underwriting, and policy decisions.

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