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Date of Graduation

5-2026

Description

After over a decade of war, hundreds of thousands dead, and twenty-four years of power, Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria collapsed in November of 2024 in just twelve days. The success of fragmented Syrian rebels against such a long-standing and powerful government challenges widely held assumptions about power and stability. This research addresses these challenged assumptions by examining the so-called “David and Goliath phenomenon," or cases in which smaller states or rebel groups come out victorious against greater powers. Understanding these cases is crucial to explaining predictability in war and regime vulnerability, while also having important implications for modern international security and counterinsurgency. The methodology that this study uses is a comparative historical analysis to explain the outcome in Syria by analyzing two other examples of underdog success in asymmetric conflicts, those being the Algerian War of Independence against France and the Vietnam War against the United States. This study draws both on reporting and scholarly, peer-reviewed literature to explain this unique phenomenon. Gathering from these sources, three recurring patterns were found that seemingly catalyze the success of the underdog in these asymmetric conflicts. First, among these cases of the David and Goliath phenomenon, the powerful states lost both domestic and international support over time while the weaker actors often achieved regional backings. For the case of Syria, the level of support the al-Assad regime received from their powerful allies of Russia and Iran significantly decreased prior to the collapse of the government, mirroring similar patterns seen in the cases of Algeria and Vietnam. A second recurring pattern in all these cases is the use of unconventional tactics that the underdogs used against their opposition, such as guerrilla warfare, acts of terrorism, and unique innovations that were made with their limited resources. Although these tactics were seemingly less significant against the larger, formal militaries, they proved to have success. Lastly, and perhaps the most important factor among the weaker-states, was the fight for identity that these groups were all a part of. The fight for survival of identity is too often underestimated, and this very well could have been the factor that pushed the weaker actors to success. These findings contribute to real-world international policy debates, proving that military strength alone cannot guarantee success. These findings will continue to demonstrate significance in the 21st century, and can be used to explain outcomes of future wars, such as possibly the Russian-Ukrainian War. Overall, this analysis is significant to understanding and explaining the outcomes of future conflicts while also being a tool to anticipate sudden political changes in the world.

Publication Date

2026

Document Type

Book

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts in Economics

Degree Level

Undergraduate

Department

Economics

Advisor/Mentor

Allen, Spencer

Disciplines

Arts and Humanities | Economics

Keywords

Humanities

The David and Goliath Phenomenon: When Small Powers Win Big Wars

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