Date of Graduation
5-2026
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Degree Level
Undergraduate
Department
International and Global Studies
Advisor/Mentor
Dr. Kelly Hammond
Committee Member
Dr. Samuel Scurry
Second Committee Member
Dr. Logan Miller
Third Committee Member
Dr. Daniela D'Eugenio
Abstract
This investigation examines the relationship between Chinese surveillance technology exports and the rise of digital authoritarianism in Ecuador and Zimbabwe from 2007 to 2024. Using a mixed-methods correlational case study design, it constructs a five-dimensional Surveillance Export Intensity Index (SEII) from United Nations Comtrade data under HS codes 8525 and 8517 and compares it against ten indicators of digital repression drawn from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset. Qualitative analysis from Freedom House, Human Rights Watch, and primary source documents provides depth and mechanism to the quantitative findings.
Results indicate that spikes in Chinese surveillance exports correlate most strongly with increasing government content regulation in both countries, while Zimbabwe's more authoritarian regime showed broader correlations between accumulated surveillance stock and multiple repression indicators. Ecuador, as a more stable democracy, proved more reactive to rapid export flows but more resistant to long-term authoritarian influence. These findings suggest that digital repression diffuses not uniformly but in ways shaped by existing regime type, economic stability, and political context. Ultimately, this project argues that while Chinese surveillance exports expand state repressive capacity, domestic political conditions remain the primary determinant of how that capacity is weaponized.
Keywords
China; Ecuador; Zimbabwe; International Trade; Digital Authoritarianism; Digital Silk Road
Citation
Bartelt, L. (2026). Infrastructures of Control: The PRC Party-state and the Diffusion of Surveillance Technology to the Global South. International and Global Studies Undergraduate Honors Theses Retrieved from https://scholarworks.uark.edu/ingsuht/25
Appendix A – Trade Data and SEII Construction Contains raw Chinese export data for HS codes 8525 and 8517 drawn from the UN Comtrade database, inflation-adjusted to 2017 USD using the US GDP deflator, and processed into the five dimensions of the Surveillance Export Intensity Index (SEII): Density, Saturation, Velocity, Allocation, and Dominance. Within-country Z-scores are computed for Ecuador, Zimbabwe, the United States, and the World across the 2007–2024 study period.
Bartelt Thesis Appendix B.xlsx (303 kB)
Appendix B – SEII Index Values and Global Comparisons Presents the final Surveillance Export Intensity Index values — both SEII_Flow (annual intensity) and SEII_Stock (cumulative, with 10% annual depreciation) — for Ecuador and Zimbabwe, derived from the processed data in Appendix A. Also includes non-standardized dimension values and global Z-score comparisons situating both countries relative to worldwide export patterns.
Bartelt Thesis Appendix C.xlsx (2062 kB)
Appendix C – V-Dem Data and Dependent Variable Processing Contains the raw extract from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Dataset v15 for Ecuador and Zimbabwe, along with the selection and within-country Z-score standardization of the ten digital repression indicators used as dependent variables in the analysis. Includes indicator screening tables and supplemental graphing data used to evaluate candidate variables.
Bartelt Thesis Appendix D.xlsx (23 kB)
Appendix D – Correlation and Regression Analysis Presents the lagged correlation and regression results for both Ecuador and Zimbabwe, organized by country, SEII variable (Flow and Stock), lag structure (t−0, t−1, t−2), and dependent variable. Also includes the event-based pre/post comparison of mean repression scores around each country's peak surveillance export year.
