Date of Graduation
5-2027
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering
Degree Level
Undergraduate
Department
Mechanical Engineering
Advisor/Mentor
Dr. Neelakshi Majumdar
Committee Member
Dr. Jenn Campbell
Abstract
This study utilized narrative reports from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) database to examine the types of uncertainty present in near-miss instructional aviation incidents occurring within the United States between 2015 and 2025. The final dataset consisted of 86 reports, with each report containing a set of narrative accounts from both the student pilot and the flight instructor operating under Part 91 regulations. Each instructional event was classified using a combined framework incorporating uncertainty categorizations and the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). Results indicate that epistemological uncertainty was the most common uncertainty framing, accounting for 72% of incidents, suggesting that many near-miss incidents stem from incomplete knowledge or misunderstandings of the situation. Further analysis revealed that communication-related uncertainties, expectation deviations, and aircraft performance-related challenges were the most frequently observed subcategories of uncertainty. These findings suggest that effectively preparing pilots to manage uncertainty may require a balance between structured knowledge development and flexible scenario-based training so pilots may develop all necessary communication, skills, and decision-making capabilities necessary to safely operate aircraft in dynamic and often unpredictable environments.
Keywords
Uncertainty; Aviation Safety
Citation
Henson, A. (2027). What types of uncertainty emerge in instructional aviation incidents?. Mechanical Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses Retrieved from https://scholarworks.uark.edu/meeguht/156
